PNG TIME

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1/08/2013

Cruel Math

Today 5% of the children who came to this 1 week Baibel school, prayed
to receive Jesus in their heart.
that's 25 kids approx.

the VBS started 4 years ago.
which means 25 + 25 + 25 + 25 (assuming none more do similiarly in the 2
remaining days)
that is 100 children from the valley, from all different lains and villages.

Given a recent study by the Barna Group in the U.S. with 2 faithful
parents: 93% of youth stay faithful
with 1 faithful parent: 74%
with 0 faithful parents: 53%

So crunching the numbers, assuming the WORST, if these children return
to homes with 0 faithful parents, 53% of them will remain faithful.
Assuming those numbers even apply in this culture...


Given 100 children, with a 53% rate of losing faith, that's still 47
adults in PNG who will one day remain faithful, possibly marry others,
have children and increase the percentages that they will have children
who remain faithful.

After only 4 years of VBS, we've begun a multi-generational series of
increasing the odds that a person will hold onto the Christian values
that we teach.

Assuming the numbers remain the same,
100 people every 4 years, coming to a saving knowledge of Christ,
47 of those making it to adulthood.

here's the math

2013 = 43
2017 = 86
2021 = 129
(after 12 years, some of these kids will be having kids which changes
the percentages to 74%, or 74 kids every 4 years)
2025 = 203
2029 = 276
2033 = 349
2037 = 422
(after 16 - 20 years, that generation will be having kids, possibly
moving us up to 93% remaining faithful, or 93 kids)
2041 = 515
2045 = 608

This math is horrible to consider, because it means we have to measure
faith, when it's lost, the odds that it'll be lost, it's horrible math
to consider. I hate it when people do this kind of math. It doesn't
factor in the Holy Spirit, it doesn't factor in other outside influences.

It's cold, hard, emotionless, number crunching that is probably
completely inaccurate. But it does show us 1 thing.


The Tok Pisin Holide Baibel Skul is 1 week out of the year. It isn't our
main jobs, it's something we as a community do 'on the side' (as are
hundreds of other things). But the real impact it has is good. The
potential impact it has is incredible.

In July 2012, the PNG population was counted as 6.3 million.

Assuming we did NOTHING other than that 1 week a year, it would take
270,967 years to see every single person in PNG find Christ.

PNG's growth rate is 26 births for every 1,000 people, per year.
That's 144,900 new babies a year.

PNG's death rate is 6.56 deaths for every 1,000 people, per year.
that's 41,328 people who die, per year.

which means each year the population grows by approximately: 103,572 people

(actually the population growth rate is 1.96%, which means closer to
1.2million per year, but I'm unsure how the factbook is calculating that
unless people are coming IN to the country from other countries).

That's a lot of new people each year who need to hear.

That's a lot of sand filling in the holes we're digging, trying to make
an impact.


Chad, why on earth did you tell us this? This is completely depressing.
You're taking something we were celebrating, 24 kids deciding to turn to
Jesus, and making it a depressing statistic? Why man why? Why must you
make our work look like we're digging holes in sand, with the sand
falling into the hole nearly as fast as we can dig it? Why?

Because I want to show that God doesn't work like the world works. We
can not crunch numbers to show the work of the Holy Spirit. We can not
measure our progress through statistics and formulas. We should not
attempt to define something so infinite as eternity with Christ, by
something as finite as a ruler or a calculator.

Any one (or more) of those kids could turn out to be a PNG Billy Graham,
a revival could start, the impact could become exponential. It's not the
only work we do, it's only 1 single week! A vacation week no less. We
have 51 others to do more stuff with.

What we're doing here, is immense. All that digging in the sand is
worth it if we see even only one more soul in heaven.

Today we celebrate 24 lives that accepted the gift of the purchase price
Christ paid for them.

And we do so, knowing that the world may mock our efforts, they may tell
us it is pointless, they may call us fools.

But someone much more important than they, said something far more
meaningful:

Mark 16:15 (some of Christ's last words:)
And He said to them, "Go into all the world and preach the gospel to all
creation.